Published every Monday — prediction market research

Systematic edges in prediction markets,
delivered weekly

We run quantitative models every week to find where Polymarket prices diverge from expected value — bundle arbitrage, model-vs-market gaps, and structured opportunities. Educational research for serious market participants.

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Two research signals, one weekly email

Bundle Arbitrage Scan

We scan Polymarket for binary markets where YES + NO prices sum to less than $1.00 — guaranteed positive expected value at settlement regardless of outcome.

Model vs Market Gaps

Our NBA ELO model runs against live Polymarket prices. When the model's probability diverges >10% from market pricing, we flag it as a potential mispricing.

Weekly digest, Monday 2pm

All findings compiled into a clean email with market questions, price details, and divergence metrics. Every Monday, straight to your inbox.

Sample digest

Here's what lands in your inbox every Monday

From: Edge Digest <noreply@flowsentinel.app>
Edge Digest — Week of 2026-06-02

Bundle Arbitrage Opportunities

Markets where YES + NO < $1.00 — guaranteed positive EV at settlement

Will the Fed cut rates before September 2026?

+3.0%
YES: 0.58NO: 0.39Sum: 0.97

Will Bitcoin exceed $120k by end of Q3 2026?

+3.0%
YES: 0.44NO: 0.53Sum: 0.97

Will the UK hold a general election in 2026?

+3.0%
YES: 0.31NO: 0.66Sum: 0.97

Model vs Market Gaps (NBA)

ELO model probability diverges >10% from Polymarket pricing

Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat

+12%
Market: 62%Model: 74%Celtics UNDERPRICED

Golden State Warriors vs Lakers

-14%
Market: 58%Model: 44%Warriors OVERPRICED

Educational research only. Not financial advice. Prediction markets carry risk.

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